The final report, Short-Run Economic Impacts of Alaska Fiscal Options, by Gunnar Knapp, Matthew Berman, and Mouhcine Guettabi, is now available for downloading. It replaces all earlier versions. Also available is a presentation by Gunnar Knapp, for the Alaska Senate Finance Committee on March 30, 2016, discussing the Alaska economy as well as the report findings.
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A recent issue of the Economic Development Journal is devoted to articles about Alaska’s economy and includes three by ISER faculty members Gunnar Knapp, Bob Loeffler, and Mouhcine Guettabi. The journal is published by the International Economic Development Council (IEDC), and this issue was released ahead of IEDC’s annual conference, held in Anchorage in October. The articles by ISER faculty are now available on the ISER website, with permission of the publisher.
Resource Revenues and Fiscal Sustainability: Lessons of the Alaska Disconnect (PDF, 522.9KB), by Gunnar Knapp, ISER director and professor of economics
Mining and Sustainable Communities: A Case Study of the Red Dog Mine (PDF, 482KB), by Bob Loeffler, ISER visiting professor of public policy
The Determinants of Small Business Success in Alaska: A Focus on the Creative Class (PDF, 240.6KB), by Mouhcine Guettabi, ISER assistant professor of economics
Read more to find summaries of the articles.
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Construction spending in Alaska will be an estimated $8.5 billion in 2015, down about 3% from spending in 2014. That's according to the 2015 construction spending forecast, by Scott Goldsmith and Pamela Cravez of ISER. That forecast is done annually for the Construction Industry Progress Fund and the Associated General Contractors of Alaska, with funding from Northrim Bank. The authors find:
• Overall construction spending will remain strong in 2015, despite the recent steep drop in oil prices. That's partly because there is still a backlog of projects funded under large state capital budgets in earlier years.
• Forecasting how much oil companies will spend for capital projects in Alaska is especially difficult this year. The companies had earlier announced plans to increase spending 18%. But the low oil price will likely force some cutbacks, so spending is forecast to stay about the same as last year.
• Private spending for commercial and residential construction is likely to be down in 2015, in the face of slowing job and population growth and uncertainty about oil prices.
Download Alaska's 2015 Construction Spending Forecast (pdf, 1.8MB), by Scott Goldsmith and Pamela Cravez. If you have questions, get in touch with Scott Goldsmith at osgoldsmith@uaa.alaska.edu.
A presentation given by Mouhcine Guettabi and John MacKinnon in Anchorage on January 29, 2015 and Fairbanks on January 30, 2015 is also available for download (PDF, 1.8MB).
ISER publications are solely the work of individual authors and should be attributed to them, not to ISER, the University of Alaska Anchorage, or the research sponsors.
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A new report by Mouhcine Guettabi, Rosyland Frazier, and Gunnar Knapp of ISER analyzes the results of a survey of Alaska employers about what health-care benefits they offer employees. The Alaska Department of Labor conducted the survey, which covered businesses, local governments, and school districts statewide. The Alaska Health Care Commission contracted with the department and ISER for the work. The report finds, among other things, that two-thirds of Alaska businesses don't provide health-insurance, and the reason they cite most often is no surprise: it's too expensive. And although about a third of employees at Alaska firms work part-time or seasonally, very few of them carry employer-based insurance. Of those employees carrying insurance through their employers, 95% are full-time workers and only 5% are part-time or seasonal.
Download the report, Alaska Employer Health-Care Benefits: A Survey of Alaska Employers (pdf, 1.9MB), by Mouhcine Guettabi, Rosyland Frazier, and Gunnar Knapp. A summary, Snapshot of Employer-Sponsored Health Insurance in Alaska (pdf, 669.9KB), by the same authors, is also available. If you have questions, get in touch with Mouhcine Guettabi at mguettabi@alaska.edu or 907-786-5496.
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Treating medical problems related to obesity among the current group of children and teenagers in Alaska will cost about $624 million (in today's dollars) over the next 20 years, according to a new analysis by Mouhcine Guettabi, assistant professor of economics at ISER. That includes costs for the 15% who are obese now, and will likely remain so as adults, as well as another 20% who aren't obese now but will become obese as adults. These are the first estimates of the medical costs associated with obesity among those ages 2 through 19 in Alaska today.
The study, Current and Future Medical Costs of Obesity in Alaska (pdf, 372.5KB), was done for the Alaska Department of Health and Social Services. If you have questions, get in touch with Mouhcine Guettabi at mguettabi@alaska.edu.
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In recent times ISER has broadened its research capacity in economics and public policy by adding three new faculty members.
Diwakar Vadapalli is an assistant professor of public policy at ISER. His PhD in social welfare is from Case Western University. Before coming to ISER he worked as a community planner and local government specialist in rural Alaska.
Mouhcine Guettabi is an assistant professor of economics at ISER, with a PhD in economics from Oklahoma State University. His fields of specialization are regional and urban economics, applied microeconomics, and health economics.
Matt Reimer holds a PhD in agricultural and resource economics from the University of California, Davis. He is an assistant professor of economics at ISER, with interests in environmental and resource economics, focusing on fisheries policy.
Read more about the work these new faculty members are doing.
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Alaska relies much more on air and water transportation than the Lower 48 states do, so it's especially vulnerable to the kinds of fuel price spikes that happened in mid-2008 and again between 2009 and 2010. A new report analyzes how higher fuel prices affect the costs of transportation in the state and work their way through the economy. It is the first study of this kind for Alaska. The authors are ISER economists Ginny Fay, Tobias Schwörer, Mouhcine Guettabi, and Jeffrey Armagost.
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A new report by ISER economists Gunnar Knapp, Mouhcine Guettabi, and Scott Goldsmith assesses the economic importance of the Bristol Bay salmon fishery, the world's most valuable wild salmon fishery. Nearly half the wild sockeye salmon harvested worldwide come from Bristol Bay. The researchers found that as of 2010, Bristol Bay salmon created $1.5 billion in sales value across the United States—through harvesting, processing, and retailing of Bristol Bay salmon—and the additional economic effects of those activities.
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The estimated value of construction spending in Alaska in 2013 will be about $8.4 billion, up 8% from spending in 2012. That's according to the 2013 Alaska Construction Spending Forecast, prepared by Scott Goldsmith and Mouhcine Guettabi of ISER for the Associated General Contractors of Alaska. More spending in the oil and gas sector will account for most of the growth.
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The estimated value of construction spending in Alaska in 2013 will be about $8.4 billion, up 8% from spending in 2012. That's according to the 2013 Alaska Construction Spending Forecast, prepared by Scott Goldsmith and Mouhcine Guettabi of ISER for the Associated General Contractors of Alaska. More spending in the oil and gas sector will account for most of the growth.