Mouhcine Guettabi

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Guettabi provides economic outlook at Alaska Economic Summits

There are positive signs that the recession is coming to an end, with a slight growth in jobs during January and February 2019, but the recovery is fragile and will be sensitive to changes in oil prices and budget cuts, Mouhcine Guettabi, associate professor of Economics and ISER faculty told attendees at a series of Alaska Economic Summits sponsored by Northrim Bank in April.

Overall, employment increased by 400 jobs between February 2018 and February 2019. This is in comparison to losses of more than 12,500 jobs since 2016.

  • 25 Apr 2019

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ISER researchers look at short-term impact of PFD on Alaska’s labor market

An increase of $1,000 in the Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD) affects women in the labor market differently than men, with women working fewer hours and men having increased employment opportunities in the three months after the PFD is distributed. The differing responses, however, nearly balance each other out with a relatively small decline in the number of hours worked on an annual basis, according to a new paper by ISER’s Andrew Bibler, Mouhcine Guettabi, and Matthew Reimer. 

  • 24 Apr 2019

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PFD study shows little impact on crime, providing important research on universal income

Within the first few weeks after the Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD) is paid, substance-abuse incidents increase, while property crime decreases. On an annual basis, however, changes in criminal activity associated with the payment are small and estimated costs are a small portion of the total payment, according to a new analysis of the PFD by Brett Watson, Mouhcine Guettabi, and Matthew Reimer of the Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER). 

  • 14 Feb 2019

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A regional assessment of Alaska's recession from 2015-2018

Since the start of the most recent recession, driven by the decline in oil prices and consequent contraction of government and private sector spending, the state has lost upwards of 13,000 jobs. But these losses have not been felt equally. ISER’s Mouhcine Guettabi uses employment data between June 2015 and June 2018, to show how each of Alaska’s 19 boroughs and 10 census areas have fared in this recent report.
  • 19 Dec 2018

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Guettabi explains oil price influence on energy-dependent states in Alaskanomics

How did we get here? The Alaska economy is heavily dependent on the oil sector both in terms of private sector jobs and government funding. Since the rapid decline in oil prices, it has experienced a prolonged recession with declines in employment across most sectors. Before the end of 2014, oil prices were elevated for a long period of time when the price exceeded 100 dollars for multiple months. However, starting June 2014, oil prices experienced a deep drop averaging only $54.26 in the 4 years since. This is much lower than the $84.47 they averaged between 2006 and July 2014. While oil prices started declining in June of 2014, the first month of negative employment growth did not occur until October 2015. The state has essentially lost jobs in every month since that initial decline. This has also resulted in a precipitous drop in government revenues, which has forced the state to use savings to fill the fiscal gap. To gain perspective on the depth and severity of the Alaska experience, we attempt to compare the recessions across states and understand the features of the states which fared best and worst.
  • 19 Oct 2018
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