Mouhcine Guettabi

In a January 26 presentation, Dr. Mouhcine Guettabi describes the likely path of Alaska's economy in 2022, and includes a look back on the pandemic and pre-pandemic factors that have impacted the state's growth.

Join ISER on January 26, 2022 for a lunchtime presentation with insights from economist Mouhcine Guettabi. He will give an overview of how the economy has changed since the onset of the pandemic and a look at the opportunities and challenges ahead.

A July 2021 report by Dr. Mouhcine Guettabi found that research activities throughout the University of Alaska system create an enterprise that added $242 million in economic benefit to the state in 2020, measured by jobs supported, total payroll produced and business sales generated. The infusion of these research dollars into Alaska leads to economic expansion.

Dr. Mouhcine Guettabi, Associate Professor of Economics at ISER and the College of Business and Public Policy, gave a presentation this week on “The State and the Stimulus,” in which he highlighted observations and analysis of the current state of Alaska’s economy and the impacts of federal aid.

Join us for a lunchtime webinar on April 21, 2021 from 12-1pm. Associate Professor of Economics Mouhcine Guettabi will discuss the state of the economy, how the stimulus affects his forecast, and will offer a few notes on the budget.

Join us for a webinar on March 25 from 12-1 pm, when Dr. Brett Watson will present findings from research studies that statistically quantify how much locals in Alaska communities benefit economically from commercial fishing.

Would you like more information about Ballot Measure 1? If so, are not alone. The “Fair Share Act”, the initiative to change the State of Alaska’s oil production (severance) tax, has many Alaskans puzzled about how oil taxes work now, how the initiative would change how they work, and what issues to think about before voting. The Anchorage Association for Energy Economists (AAEE) and the University of Alaska Anchorage Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER), invite you to participate in a live Zoom forum on the ballot measure from 12:00 noon – 1:30 pm, Monday October 12.

UAA Professors Mouhcine Guettabi and Alex James have just published a paper in the journal Resource and Energy Economics entitled “Who benefits from an Oil Boom?  Evidence from a Unique Alaska Data Set.”  The paper applies a statistical approach called the “Synthetic Control Method” to examine the impact of the oil boom that began in 2006 on employment and income for residents and non-residents of the North Slope Borough.  The study uses data from 2000 to 2016. 

On August 21st, Mouhcine Guettabi, Associate Professor of Economics at ISER, and Jonathan King, an Anchorage private business consultant, were interviewed by Lori Townsend on Alaska Insight*, Alaska Public Media’s weekly public affairs program.  That program discussed how the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting the Alaska economy.  Dr. Guettabi opened the discussion by explaining that employment in Alaska will probably not fully recover by 2022.  Even if a vaccine is developed that ends the business closures and re-opens tourism by summer 2021, Dr. Guettabi projects that employment in the Alaska economy in 2022 will still be 5% below pre-pandemic levels.

ISER Professor Mouhcine Guettabi forecasts modest economic growth for the Alaska economy for 2021 and 2022.  However, he expects that this modest growth will not be enough for Alaska to fully recover from the COVID-19 pandemic shock.  Professor Guettabi projects that the economy in 2022 will still be 5% below the pre-pandemic level.  The forecast appears in a report entitled Alaska’s Economy and the pandemic, which was prepared for the Alaska Department of Commerce, Community and Economic Development (DCCED.)  The projection that Alaska’s economy will not fully recover by 2022 is consistent with similar Federal Reserve forecasts for the US economy.