Economic Outlook

Ralph Townsend, ISER director, gave presentations on Alaska’s economy and the state budget (PPTX, 701KB) to the Board of Directors of the Alaska Federation of Natives, CIRI’s Tikahtnu Forum and the Fairbanks Chamber of Commerce in early May.

There are positive signs that the recession is coming to an end, with a slight growth in jobs during January and February 2019, but the recovery is fragile and will be sensitive to changes in oil prices and budget cuts, Mouhcine Guettabi, associate professor of Economics and ISER faculty told attendees at a series of Alaska Economic Summits sponsored by Northrim Bank in April.

Overall, employment increased by 400 jobs between February 2018 and February 2019. This is in comparison to losses of more than 12,500 jobs since 2016.

How might steps Alaska's state government takes to balance its budget affect Alaska families? Different ways of closing the state's $3 billion budget gap—the result of lower oil prices and dwindling oil revenues—will have different effects on households with and without children, according to a new report by Matthew Berman and Random Reamey of ISER. They looked specifically at how state income, sales, or property taxes and a cut in Permanent Fund dividends would affect incomes of households with and without children. 

A growing number of immigrants and refugees call Anchorage home, and ISER is pleased to host a panel discussion of their economic contributions. The panelists are Ethan Berkowitz, the mayor of Anchorage; Bill Popp, the president of Anchorage Economic Development Corporation (AEDC); Delaney Mitchell, UAA student and researcher; and Mara Kimmel, a senior fellow at the Institute of the North.

The panelists will describe efforts in Anchorage to avoid “brain waste” among those coming from other countries, by ensuring they have access to markets and jobs, and also discuss ways to leverage the skills, experience, and education these newcomers bring to the city. The discussion is one of a number of events in Welcoming Week, sponsored by the Municipality of Anchorage, AEDC, and local businesses.

When: Monday, September 19, 12 to 1
Where: Room B05 (Basement), 1901 Bragaw Street

Note: Those who can’t attend in person can stream the talk live at: http://stream.iseralaska.org

Total construction spending in Alaska will be about $7.3 billion in 2016, down 18% from last year’s $8.9 billion. That drop can be traced to the recent steep decline in oil prices, after several years of very high prices. Those high oil prices had stimulated construction spending throughout the state economy, especially in the oil and gas sector and in state government. Those are among the findings of the new 2016 Construction Spending Forecast, prepared by Scott Goldsmith and Pamela Cravez of ISER for the Associated General Contractors of Alaska.

Many sectors of the economy will see drops in construction spending, particularly the oil and gas sector, which had record spending in 2015. But spending in some sectors will be up or the same as last year. Spending for national defense projects will be up 27%, and spending by basic industries other than oil and gas (tourism, seafood, air cargo, and timber) will be up 39%. Spending for highways and roads will be the same as in 2015, as will spending by the mining industry.

Download the report, 2016 Alaska Construction Spending Forecast (PDF, 1.6MB). If you have questions, get in touch with Scott Goldsmith, professor emeritus of economics, at osgoldsmith@uaa.alaska.edu.