New research from Bob Loeffler and Brett Watson examines the economic potential for Alaska’s mineral industry.
Bob Loeffler speaking at an Alaska Legislative Lunch and Learn presentation, March 16, 2022.
During an online overview of their research, Loeffler and Watson discussed Alaska’s mining status in 2019, and then explained how they used an if-then framework to look ahead 20 years, rather than making predictions about specific projects.
Their methodology included categorizing mines along a “mine development pyramid.” There are multiple factors that determine whether a prospect in the ground moves along all the way to an operational mine stage. Loeffler and Watson considered factors that would lead to Favorable, Status Quo and Unfavorable scenarios (from the perspective of the mining industry) for Alaska mining in 20 years.
Factors affecting these possible scenarios include geology/metallurgy, markets (financing/metal prices/demand), public opinion, and state and federal policies (regulations, environmental, infrastructure, tax, and land use policy).
For each scenario, they determined possible employment, wages, and gross value produced, along with the production tonnage of key commodities.
They also discussed critical minerals that Alaska could produce, revenue to state government, regional impacts, and economic effects on Alaska Native communities and corporations.
Loeffler and Watson found that the industry could double under a Favorable scenario, or decrease by 1/3 in an Unfavorable scenario.
Bob Loeffler, Research Professor of Public Policy, ISER
Bob has a long history working with land and resources issues in Alaska, most of it in government. This work included issues involving land planning, mining, oil and gas, and forestry. He coordinated Alaska’s large-mine permitting process at the Alaska Department of Natural Resources, and then served as Director of the Division of Mining, Land and Water for seven years. He has served as Planning Director of the Exxon Valdez Trustee Council, as an economist with the Alaska Power Authority, and as a private consultant. He has taught UAA courses in public land management, the mining industry, and how to talk about contentious issues. Bob has a Master of City & Regional Planning from Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government, an M.S. in Civil Engineering (Environmental Engineering) from Stanford University, and a B.S. in Applied Earth Sciences from Stanford University.
Brett Watson, Research Assistant Professor of Economics, ISER
Brett’s work focuses on how natural resource wealth is created, managed, and distributed both nationally and in the state of Alaska. He is particularly interested in applying modern econometric approaches to questions surrounding resource policy, community engagement with resource extraction, and extractive firm behavior. He holds a PhD and MS in Mineral and Energy Economics from Colorado School of Mines and a BBA in Economics from Texas State University. Prior to joining ISER, Brett worked as a research associate at the Department of Energy’s Critical Materials Institute studying the supply chains for rare and specialized materials for use in clean energy applications.
