In a presentation on changing demographics in Alaska, Dr. Ralph Townsend highlighted a concerning downward trend in Alaska’s labor force participation that could have long-term impacts on the economy. The presentation is part of a broad initiative, “Investing for Alaska’s Future,” generously sponsored by Northrim Bank. Townsend also acknowledged work from the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, which generates important data about the socioecomics of Alaska’s people. Brett Watson provides an introduction and conducts the Q&A session.
Watch the entire presentation here, or navigate through different sections:
- Alaska demographics – “We’re getting older, and quickly.” The percent of Alaska’s population over the age of 65 has grown from 3% to 17% since 1980. Alaska is getting older much faster than the rest of the country.
- Alaska’s population – Townsend shows that Alaska has experienced a net outmigration for nine years in a row.
- Is the pandemic a demographic tipping point? – “Part of what we are seeing in the pandemic is really a concentration of changes that have been going on for a decade but that we haven’t been paying a lot of attention to…If we think about the world as being static, we are missing the point that there are great demographic changes going across our country.”
- Labor force participation – Labor force participation is the number of people currently working or seeking a job. Townsend said that there’s new scrutiny on this rate since it fell so dramatically during the pandemic, causing speculation about a “Great Reassessment” as people consider their relationship to work. However, he showed that there’s been a decline in this rate since well before the pandemic. “If there was a Great Reassessment, it occurred in 2010-2015, after the Great Recession.” Townsend then compared the Alaska rate to the national rate, showing that while there was an national uptick in labor force participation in 2018-2019, the rate in Alaska continued to decline.
- Increasing the labor pool – How can Alaska increase its labor pool? What things should Alaska be thinking about as it looks at state and federal policies? Townsend discusses immigration reform, student visas, support for childcare, support for education from pre-K through post-secondary, infrastructure and increasing lifestyle amenities.
- Adjusting to tighter labor markets – Increasing productivity and revisiting Alaska’s high healthcare and insurance costs.
- Q&A
About Dr. Ralph Townsend
Dr. Ralph Townsend is currently Professor of Economics at the University of Alaska Anchorage. He was the director of the Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER) at the University of Alaska Anchorage from 2016 to 2021. He has a record of using economics to help inform public policy in areas such as natural resource management, health care, and education. In Alaska over the past six years, he has made numerous presentations to help Alaskans better understand the economic challenges and opportunities facing the Alaska economy and the Alaska state budget. By training, Dr. Townsend is an economist whose research specialty was fisheries management. He spent the first 25 years of his career at the University of Maine. He had the interesting opportunity to serve as Chief Economist of the New Zealand Ministry of Fisheries for 3 years. Immediately prior to coming to Alaska, he was dean of the College of Liberal Arts at Winona State University, in Minnesota, for six years.
