“The end of the recession is potentially approaching,” Mouhcine Guettabi said on a recent Talk of Alaska on Alaska Public Radio. Guettabi and Neal Fried, senior economist with the State of Alaska’s Department of Labor, agreed that the recession may be ending in the next few months, with the forecast for 2019 being positive, but with little job growth.
The question is how long it will take to recover. According to Guettabi’s recent report on the impact of oil prices on Alaska and other energy-dependent states, Alaska has experienced 34 straight months of negative growth and had an even longer period of employment decline. Between July 2015 and July 2018 job losses were 12,500.
Construction is approximately 15% below where it was in 2014 and the state’s capital budget has been bare bones for the last four years.
In addition to discussing Alaska’s economic outlook on APRN’s Talk of Alaska, Guettabi, appeared in “The Economic Forecast for Recession Relief” on Alaska Public Media’s Alaska Insight. He has also written on the subject for the Alaskanomics blog and provided a presentation at the Alaska State Chamber’s Fall Forum.
ISER is planning a lunchtime talk on Alaska’s economic forecast soon.